Week 5 picks made 2026-09-29 23:32 · picks locked at that line
Picks are games where the model disagrees with the betting line by enough to matter. Cover chance comes from how often games like this covered in past seasons.
Upset Radar
The underdogs most likely to win outright this week, by our ratings.
Track record: in 2024, 2025, seasons the model never learned from, it picked 159 underdogs to win outright. They won 70 (44%); the betting line gave them about 43% on average.
Every FBS game
Tap a game for the matchup breakdown and how its line has moved. Lines last checked 2026-09-30 19:15.
Since our picks were locked, 15 of the 22 lines that moved have moved toward our side. Sharp bettors watch this: moving with the market is a good sign, even before the games are played.
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateThu 8:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineNew Mexico State -2.5Our numberNew Mexico State +3.6LeanWestern Kentucky 51%Line moveno move
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Western Kentucky has been 5 points better on the scoreboard and 5 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: New Mexico State -2.5. Our number is New Mexico State +3.6, a 6.1-point gap toward Western Kentucky. Cover chance 51% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: New Mexico State lost by 24 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Western Kentucky won by 45 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
North Texas @ TulsaThu 9:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineTulsa -1Our numberTulsa +2LeanNorth Texas 50%Line move▲ 2 our way
The matchup: North Texas's pass offense ranks #11 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Tulsa's pass defense ranks #53.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, North Texas has been 6 points better on the scoreboard and 10 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Tulsa -1. Our number is Tulsa +2, a 3.0-point gap toward North Texas. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: North Texas won by 49 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Tulsa lost by 28 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Tulsa is on a short week (5 days). Historically, teams in that spot covered 48% (busted: coin flip).
Liberty @ DelawareFri 7:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineDelaware +7Our numberDelaware +4.4LeanLiberty 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Liberty's pass offense ranks #44 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Delaware's pass defense ranks #112.
The worry: Liberty's run offense (#95) runs into Delaware's run defense (#42).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Liberty has been 8 points better on the scoreboard and 3 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Delaware +7. Our number is Delaware +4.4, a 2.6-point gap toward Liberty. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Delaware lost by 39 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Delaware is a home underdog (+7). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Liberty is a road favorite (-7). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Pittsburgh @ Virginia TechFri 7:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineVirginia Tech -3.5Our numberVirginia Tech +0.5LeanPittsburgh 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The matchup: Pittsburgh's pass offense ranks #42 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Virginia Tech's pass defense ranks #93.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Pittsburgh has been 5 points better on the scoreboard and 5 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Virginia Tech -3.5. Our number is Virginia Tech +0.5, a 4.0-point gap toward Pittsburgh. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Pittsburgh won by 59 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Virginia Tech is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip).
Penn State @ NorthwesternFri 8:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineNorthwestern +3Our numberNorthwestern +1.8LeanPenn State 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Northwestern's run offense (#29) against Penn State's run defense (#107).
The numbers: the scoreboard favors Northwestern by 1 points, but play-for-play efficiency favors Penn State by 1. Efficiency tends to predict the future better.
The line: Northwestern +3. Our number is Northwestern +1.8, a 1.2-point gap toward Penn State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Penn State lost outright as a favorite last game. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Penn State is a road favorite (-3). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Northwestern has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Northwestern is a home underdog (+3). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Boston College @ SMUSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineSMU -21Our numberSMU -19.2LeanBoston College 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Boston College's run defense ranks #46 of 138 FBS teams; SMU's run offense ranks only #105.
The worry: Boston College's pass offense (#125) runs into SMU's pass defense (#39).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, SMU has been 14 points better on the scoreboard and 19 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: SMU -21. Our number is SMU -19.2, a 1.8-point gap toward Boston College. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Boston College is a 21-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). SMU is favored by 21. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Stanford @ Wake ForestSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineWake Forest -13Our numberWake Forest -13.2LeanStanford 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Wake Forest's pass offense (#38) against Stanford's pass defense (#129).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Wake Forest has been 11 points better on the scoreboard and 10 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Wake Forest -13. Our number is Wake Forest -13.2, a 0.2-point gap toward Stanford. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Alabama @ Mississippi StateSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineMississippi State +6Our numberMississippi State +10.2LeanAlabama 51%Line moveno move
The matchup: Alabama's run offense ranks #20 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Mississippi State's run defense ranks #47.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Alabama has been 11 points better on the scoreboard and 8 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Mississippi State +6. Our number is Mississippi State +10.2, a 4.2-point gap toward Alabama. Cover chance 51% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Alabama won by 31 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Alabama is a road favorite (-6). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Alabama is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Mississippi State has covered 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Mississippi State is 4-0 against the spread this season. Historically, teams in that spot covered 39% (something there, but thin). Mississippi State is a home underdog (+6). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Notre Dame @ North CarolinaSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineNorth Carolina +21Our numberNorth Carolina +21.7LeanNotre Dame 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Notre Dame's pass defense ranks #10 of 138 FBS teams; North Carolina's pass offense ranks only #82.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Notre Dame has been 20 points better on the scoreboard and 24 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: North Carolina +21. Our number is North Carolina +21.7, a 0.7-point gap toward Notre Dame. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: North Carolina had 14 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). North Carolina is a home underdog (+21). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). North Carolina is a 21-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Notre Dame won by 39 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Notre Dame is a road favorite (-21). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Notre Dame is favored by 21. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Notre Dame is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip).
Navy @ Air ForceSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineAir Force -3Our numberAir Force -3LeanNavy 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Navy's run offense ranks #30 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Air Force's run defense ranks #106.
The worry: Navy's pass offense (#136) runs into Air Force's pass defense (#44).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Air Force has been 2 points better on the scoreboard and 4 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Air Force -3. Our number is Air Force -3, a 0.0-point gap toward Navy. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Navy has failed to cover 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Navy lost outright as a favorite last game. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Michigan @ MinnesotaSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineMinnesota +5.5Our numberMinnesota +6.1LeanMichigan 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Michigan's run defense ranks #26 of 138 FBS teams; Minnesota's run offense ranks only #117.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Michigan has been 6 points better on the scoreboard and 10 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Minnesota +5.5. Our number is Minnesota +6.1, a 0.6-point gap toward Michigan. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Minnesota is a home underdog (+5.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Michigan lost outright as a favorite last game. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Michigan is a road favorite (-5.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Syracuse @ UConnSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineUConn +6.5Our numberUConn +0.9LeanSyracuse 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Syracuse's pass defense ranks #4 of 138 FBS teams; UConn's pass offense ranks only #53.
The worry: Syracuse's pass offense (#107) runs into UConn's pass defense (#54).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, UConn has been 1 points better on the scoreboard and 1 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: UConn +6.5. Our number is UConn +0.9, a 5.6-point gap toward Syracuse. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Syracuse had 16 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Syracuse is a road favorite (-6.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). UConn is a home underdog (+6.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
West Virginia @ Iowa StateSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineIowa State -3.5Our numberIowa State -6.4LeanWest Virginia 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The matchup: West Virginia's run defense ranks #37 of 138 FBS teams; Iowa State's run offense ranks only #52.
The worry: Iowa State's pass offense (#70) against West Virginia's pass defense (#113).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Iowa State has been 7 points better on the scoreboard and 7 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Iowa State -3.5. Our number is Iowa State -6.4, a 2.9-point gap toward West Virginia. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: West Virginia lost outright as a favorite last game. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
UCF @ HoustonSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineHouston -12Our numberHouston -11LeanUCF 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: UCF's run defense ranks #13 of 138 FBS teams; Houston's run offense ranks only #39.
The worry: UCF's run offense (#93) runs into Houston's run defense (#30).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Houston has been 4 points better on the scoreboard and 11 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Houston -12. Our number is Houston -11, a 1.0-point gap toward UCF. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Middle Tennessee @ KansasSat 12:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineKansas -18.5Our numberKansas -13.9LeanMiddle Tennessee 51%Line moveno move
The worry: Middle Tennessee's run offense (#71) runs into Kansas's run defense (#33).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Kansas has been 4 points better on the scoreboard and 13 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Kansas -18.5. Our number is Kansas -13.9, a 4.6-point gap toward Middle Tennessee. Cover chance 51% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Kansas had 14 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Kansas is favored by 18.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Middle Tennessee is a 18.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Michigan State @ WisconsinSat 12:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineWisconsin -10Our numberWisconsin -7.6LeanMichigan State 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Michigan State's pass offense (#94) runs into Wisconsin's pass defense (#16).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Wisconsin has been 2 points better on the scoreboard and 8 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Wisconsin -10. Our number is Wisconsin -7.6, a 2.4-point gap toward Michigan State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Vanderbilt @ GeorgiaSat 12:45 PM ▸ breakdownLineGeorgia -23.5Our numberGeorgia -20.8LeanVanderbilt 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Vanderbilt's pass offense (#85) runs into Georgia's pass defense (#47).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Georgia has been 15 points better on the scoreboard and 16 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Georgia -23.5. Our number is Georgia -20.8, a 2.7-point gap toward Vanderbilt. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Georgia has covered 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Georgia is 4-0 against the spread this season. Historically, teams in that spot covered 39% (something there, but thin). Georgia won by 28 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Georgia is favored by 23.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Georgia is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Vanderbilt is a 23.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Western Michigan @ BuffaloSat 1:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineBuffalo +13.5Our numberBuffalo +13.3LeanWestern Michigan 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Western Michigan's pass defense ranks #64 of 138 FBS teams; Buffalo's pass offense ranks only #121.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Western Michigan has been 16 points better on the scoreboard and 14 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Buffalo +13.5. Our number is Buffalo +13.3, a 0.2-point gap toward Western Michigan. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Buffalo has failed to cover 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Buffalo is a home underdog (+13.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Western Michigan lost by 25 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Western Michigan is a road favorite (-13.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Toledo @ Ball StateSat 2:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineBall State +19.5Our numberBall State +15.4LeanToledo 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Toledo's pass offense ranks #29 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Ball State's pass defense ranks #128.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Toledo has been 15 points better on the scoreboard and 21 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Ball State +19.5. Our number is Ball State +15.4, a 4.1-point gap toward Toledo. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Toledo won by 25 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Toledo is a road favorite (-19.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Toledo is favored by 19.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Ball State is a home underdog (+19.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Ball State is a 19.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Akron @ Central MichiganSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineCentral Michigan -6.5Our numberCentral Michigan -7.9LeanAkron 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Akron's pass offense (#129) runs into Central Michigan's pass defense (#70).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Central Michigan has been 5 points better on the scoreboard and 3 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Central Michigan -6.5. Our number is Central Michigan -7.9, a 1.4-point gap toward Akron. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Akron lost by 28 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Central Michigan lost by 49 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
California @ UNLVSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineUNLV -3Our numberUNLV -1.4LeanCalifornia 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The matchup: California's pass defense ranks #41 of 138 FBS teams; UNLV's pass offense ranks only #105.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, UNLV has been 1 points better on the scoreboard and 0 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: UNLV -3. Our number is UNLV -1.4, a 1.6-point gap toward California. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: UNLV won by 28 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Louisville @ NC StateSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineNC State +4Our numberNC State +2.4LeanLouisville 50%Line move▼ 0.5 against us
The matchup: Louisville's pass offense ranks #19 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and NC State's pass defense ranks #103.
The worry: NC State's pass offense (#43) against Louisville's pass defense (#106).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Louisville has been 4 points better on the scoreboard and 4 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: NC State +4. Our number is NC State +2.4, a 1.6-point gap toward Louisville. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: NC State is a home underdog (+3.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Louisville lost outright as a favorite last game. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Louisville is a road favorite (-3.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Florida @ MissouriSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineMissouri +5.5Our numberMissouri +7.6LeanFlorida 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Florida's run defense ranks #66 of 138 FBS teams; Missouri's run offense ranks only #104.
The worry: Missouri's pass offense (#17) against Florida's pass defense (#59).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Florida has been 11 points better on the scoreboard and 5 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Missouri +5.5. Our number is Missouri +7.6, a 2.1-point gap toward Florida. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Missouri is a home underdog (+5.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Florida won by 24 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Florida is a road favorite (-5.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Florida is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip).
Eastern Michigan @ MassachusettsSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineMassachusetts -6.5Our numberMassachusetts -9.3LeanEastern Michigan 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The worry: Eastern Michigan's run offense (#109) runs into Massachusetts's run defense (#5).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Massachusetts has been 12 points better on the scoreboard and 5 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Massachusetts -6.5. Our number is Massachusetts -9.3, a 2.8-point gap toward Eastern Michigan. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Eastern Michigan won by 26 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Massachusetts won by 29 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Massachusetts is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip).
Auburn @ TennesseeSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineTennessee -7Our numberTennessee -8.7LeanAuburn 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Auburn's run offense ranks #44 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Tennessee's run defense ranks #78.
The worry: Auburn's pass offense (#91) runs into Tennessee's pass defense (#7).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Tennessee has been 5 points better on the scoreboard and 6 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Tennessee -7. Our number is Tennessee -8.7, a 1.7-point gap toward Auburn. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Samford @ UABSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineno lineOur numberUAB -18Leanno lineLine move—
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, UAB has been 10 points better on the scoreboard and 11 better play-for-play (neutral field).
No betting line yet. Our number: UAB -18.
Trend check: UAB is favored by 30.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Old Dominion @ Georgia StateSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineGeorgia State -2Our numberGeorgia State -1.2LeanOld Dominion 50%Line move▼ 0.5 against us
The matchup: Old Dominion's run defense ranks #21 of 138 FBS teams; Georgia State's run offense ranks only #47.
The worry: Old Dominion's pass offense (#132) runs into Georgia State's pass defense (#33).
The numbers: the scoreboard favors Georgia State by 6 points, but play-for-play efficiency favors Old Dominion by 3. Efficiency tends to predict the future better.
The line: Georgia State -2. Our number is Georgia State -1.2, a 0.8-point gap toward Old Dominion. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Georgia State has covered 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Georgia State is 4-0 against the spread this season. Historically, teams in that spot covered 39% (something there, but thin). Georgia State won by 21 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Old Dominion has failed to cover 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Old Dominion lost by 26 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Ohio @ Kent StateSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineKent State +3Our numberKent State +4.3LeanOhio 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The matchup: Ohio's run offense ranks #18 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Kent State's run defense ranks #95.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Ohio has been 3 points better on the scoreboard and 8 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Kent State +3. Our number is Kent State +4.3, a 1.3-point gap toward Ohio. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Ohio won by 28 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Ohio is a road favorite (-3.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Kent State is a home underdog (+3.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)Sat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineMiami (OH) -13Our numberMiami (OH) -14.2LeanBowling Green 50%Line move▼ 0.5 against us
The worry: Miami (OH)'s pass offense (#4) against Bowling Green's pass defense (#73).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Miami (OH) has been 9 points better on the scoreboard and 15 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Miami (OH) -13. Our number is Miami (OH) -14.2, a 1.2-point gap toward Bowling Green. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Bowling Green is 0-4 and an underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Miami (OH) has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip).
Ohio State @ IowaSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineIowa +14Our numberIowa +13.2LeanOhio State 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The matchup: Ohio State's pass offense ranks #7 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Iowa's pass defense ranks #83.
The worry: Iowa's run offense (#42) against Ohio State's run defense (#86).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Ohio State has been 11 points better on the scoreboard and 12 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Iowa +14. Our number is Iowa +13.2, a 0.8-point gap toward Ohio State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Ohio State won by 23 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Ohio State is a road favorite (-14.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Ohio State is favored by 14.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Iowa is a home underdog (+14.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Iowa is a 14.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Memphis @ CharlotteSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineCharlotte +20Our numberCharlotte +19.5LeanMemphis 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The matchup: Memphis's pass offense ranks #9 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Charlotte's pass defense ranks #104.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Memphis has been 20 points better on the scoreboard and 18 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Charlotte +20. Our number is Charlotte +19.5, a 0.5-point gap toward Memphis. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Memphis won by 24 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Memphis had 14 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Memphis is a road favorite (-20.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Memphis is favored by 20.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Charlotte lost by 27 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Charlotte is a home underdog (+20.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Charlotte is a 20.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Charlotte is 0-4 and an underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Wyoming @ North Dakota StateSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineNorth Dakota State -18Our numberNorth Dakota State -19.7LeanWyoming 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Wyoming's run offense (#76) runs into North Dakota State's run defense (#2).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, North Dakota State has been 18 points better on the scoreboard and 14 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: North Dakota State -18. Our number is North Dakota State -19.7, a 1.7-point gap toward Wyoming. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: North Dakota State won by 21 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). North Dakota State had 13 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). North Dakota State is favored by 18.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). North Dakota State is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Wyoming is a 18.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Virginia @ Florida StateSat 3:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineFlorida State +3Our numberFlorida State +1LeanVirginia 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Virginia's run offense ranks #15 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Florida State's run defense ranks #111.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Virginia has been 5 points better on the scoreboard and 6 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Florida State +3. Our number is Florida State +1, a 2.0-point gap toward Virginia. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Virginia won by 39 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Virginia is a road favorite (-3). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Florida State won by 27 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Florida State is a home underdog (+3). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Marshall @ James MadisonSat 3:45 PM ▸ breakdownLineJames Madison -18.5Our numberJames Madison -16.6LeanMarshall 50%Line move▼ 0.5 against us
The worry: Marshall's run offense (#116) runs into James Madison's run defense (#24).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, James Madison has been 14 points better on the scoreboard and 17 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: James Madison -18.5. Our number is James Madison -16.6, a 1.9-point gap toward Marshall. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: James Madison has covered 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). James Madison is 4-0 against the spread this season. Historically, teams in that spot covered 39% (something there, but thin). James Madison won by 26 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). James Madison is favored by 18.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). James Madison is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Marshall is a 18.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
UTEP @ New MexicoSat 4:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineNew Mexico -23Our numberNew Mexico -22.9LeanUTEP 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The worry: New Mexico's run offense (#13) against UTEP's run defense (#126).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, New Mexico has been 19 points better on the scoreboard and 21 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: New Mexico -23. Our number is New Mexico -22.9, a 0.1-point gap toward UTEP. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: UTEP lost by 26 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). UTEP is a 23-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). New Mexico has covered 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). New Mexico is 4-0 against the spread this season. Historically, teams in that spot covered 39% (something there, but thin). New Mexico won by 24 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). New Mexico is favored by 23. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Maryland @ NebraskaSat 4:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineNebraska -14.5Our numberNebraska -16.5LeanMaryland 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Maryland's pass offense (#110) runs into Nebraska's pass defense (#13).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Nebraska has been 16 points better on the scoreboard and 10 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Nebraska -14.5. Our number is Nebraska -16.5, a 2.0-point gap toward Maryland. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Nebraska has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Nebraska is favored by 14.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Nebraska is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Maryland lost by 51 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Maryland is a 14.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Kentucky @ South CarolinaSat 4:15 PM ▸ breakdownLineSouth Carolina -3Our numberSouth Carolina -2LeanKentucky 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Kentucky's pass defense ranks #20 of 138 FBS teams; South Carolina's pass offense ranks only #104.
The worry: South Carolina's run offense (#8) against Kentucky's run defense (#96).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Kentucky has been 4 points better on the scoreboard and 2 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: South Carolina -3. Our number is South Carolina -2, a 1.0-point gap toward Kentucky. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: South Carolina has failed to cover 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). South Carolina lost by 31 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Kentucky won by 24 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Purdue @ IllinoisSat 4:15 PM ▸ breakdownLineIllinois -10Our numberIllinois -11.6LeanPurdue 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Purdue's pass offense ranks #13 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Illinois's pass defense ranks #122.
The worry: Illinois's run offense (#17) against Purdue's run defense (#132).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Illinois has been 6 points better on the scoreboard and 6 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Illinois -10. Our number is Illinois -11.6, a 1.6-point gap toward Purdue. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Illinois lost by 23 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Purdue lost by 39 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Oregon State @ Colorado StateSat 6:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineColorado State +6.5Our numberColorado State +4LeanOregon State 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Oregon State's pass offense ranks #35 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Colorado State's pass defense ranks #123.
The worry: Colorado State's run offense (#12) against Oregon State's run defense (#58).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Oregon State has been 6 points better on the scoreboard and 6 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Colorado State +6.5. Our number is Colorado State +4, a 2.5-point gap toward Oregon State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Oregon State has covered 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Oregon State is 4-0 against the spread this season. Historically, teams in that spot covered 39% (something there, but thin). Oregon State won by 26 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Oregon State is a road favorite (-6.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Colorado State is a home underdog (+6.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Texas Southern @ Florida AtlanticSat 6:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineno lineOur numberFlorida Atlantic -31.3Leanno lineLine move—
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Florida Atlantic has been 26 points better on the scoreboard and 12 better play-for-play (neutral field).
No betting line yet. Our number: Florida Atlantic -31.3.
Trend check: Florida Atlantic has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Florida Atlantic won by 28 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Florida Atlantic is favored by 43.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Arkansas @ Texas A&MSat 7:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineTexas A&M -14Our numberTexas A&M -15.5LeanArkansas 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Arkansas's run offense (#94) runs into Texas A&M's run defense (#14).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Texas A&M has been 9 points better on the scoreboard and 11 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Texas A&M -14. Our number is Texas A&M -15.5, a 1.5-point gap toward Arkansas. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Arkansas won by 28 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Arkansas is a 14-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Texas A&M lost by 29 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Texas A&M is favored by 14. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaSat 7:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineCoastal Carolina +2.5Our numberCoastal Carolina +0.4LeanGeorgia Southern 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Georgia Southern's pass offense ranks #64 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Coastal Carolina's pass defense ranks #132.
The worry: Georgia Southern's run offense (#112) runs into Coastal Carolina's run defense (#48).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Georgia Southern has been 3 points better on the scoreboard and 2 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Coastal Carolina +2.5. Our number is Coastal Carolina +0.4, a 2.1-point gap toward Georgia Southern. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Coastal Carolina is a home underdog (+2.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Georgia Southern is a road favorite (-2.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
UL Monroe @ South AlabamaSat 7:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineSouth Alabama -14Our numberSouth Alabama -16.5LeanUL Monroe 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The worry: South Alabama's run offense (#70) against UL Monroe's run defense (#137).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, South Alabama has been 14 points better on the scoreboard and 12 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: South Alabama -14. Our number is South Alabama -16.5, a 2.5-point gap toward UL Monroe. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: South Alabama lost by 24 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). South Alabama is favored by 14. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). UL Monroe lost by 28 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). UL Monroe is a 14-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). UL Monroe is 0-4 and an underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
UTSA @ RiceSat 7:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineRice +11.5Our numberRice +12.6LeanUTSA 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The matchup: UTSA's pass defense ranks #34 of 138 FBS teams; Rice's pass offense ranks only #133.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, UTSA has been 12 points better on the scoreboard and 16 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Rice +11.5. Our number is Rice +12.6, a 1.1-point gap toward UTSA. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: UTSA has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). UTSA is a road favorite (-12). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Rice is a home underdog (+12). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
BYU @ TCUSat 7:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineTCU +6.5Our numberTCU +3.3LeanBYU 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: BYU's pass offense ranks #21 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and TCU's pass defense ranks #81.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, BYU has been 6 points better on the scoreboard and 11 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: TCU +6.5. Our number is TCU +3.3, a 3.2-point gap toward BYU. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: TCU lost outright as a favorite last game. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). TCU is a home underdog (+6.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). BYU has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). BYU had 14 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). BYU is a road favorite (-6.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Army @ Louisiana TechSat 7:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineLouisiana Tech +2.5Our numberLouisiana Tech +6.7LeanArmy 51%Line moveno move
The matchup: Army's run offense ranks #3 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Louisiana Tech's run defense ranks #63.
The numbers: the scoreboard favors Army by 8 points, but play-for-play efficiency favors Louisiana Tech by 2. Efficiency tends to predict the future better.
The line: Louisiana Tech +2.5. Our number is Louisiana Tech +6.7, a 4.2-point gap toward Army. Cover chance 51% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Army is a road favorite (-2.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Louisiana Tech has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Louisiana Tech had 14 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Louisiana Tech is a home underdog (+2.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Washington @ USCSat 7:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineUSC -9.5Our numberUSC -9LeanWashington 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Washington's pass offense ranks #61 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and USC's pass defense ranks #133.
The worry: USC's pass offense (#2) against Washington's pass defense (#58).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, USC has been 7 points better on the scoreboard and 2 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: USC -9.5. Our number is USC -9, a 0.5-point gap toward Washington. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: USC has failed to cover 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Washington has failed to cover 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Washington lost outright as a favorite last game. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Texas Tech @ ColoradoSat 7:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineColorado +13Our numberColorado +14.7LeanTexas Tech 50%Line move▼ 1.5 against us
The matchup: Texas Tech's pass offense ranks #32 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Colorado's pass defense ranks #110.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Texas Tech has been 14 points better on the scoreboard and 12 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Colorado +13. Our number is Colorado +14.7, a 1.7-point gap toward Texas Tech. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Colorado has failed to cover 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Colorado is a home underdog (+11.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Texas Tech won by 35 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Texas Tech is a road favorite (-11.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Texas Tech is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip).
Utah State @ Boise StateSat 7:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineBoise State -20.5Our numberBoise State -19.7LeanUtah State 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The worry: Utah State's run offense (#120) runs into Boise State's run defense (#44).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Boise State has been 16 points better on the scoreboard and 13 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Boise State -20.5. Our number is Boise State -19.7, a 0.8-point gap toward Utah State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Boise State won by 25 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Boise State is favored by 20. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Utah State is a 20-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Miami @ ClemsonSat 7:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineClemson +16.5Our numberClemson +11.2LeanMiami 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Miami's run offense ranks #24 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Clemson's run defense ranks #124.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Miami has been 9 points better on the scoreboard and 16 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Clemson +16.5. Our number is Clemson +11.2, a 5.3-point gap toward Miami. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Miami won by 49 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Miami is a road favorite (-16.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Miami is favored by 16.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Miami is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Clemson is a home underdog (+16.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Clemson is a 16.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Temple @ South FloridaSat 7:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineSouth Florida -6.5Our numberSouth Florida -11.5LeanTemple 50%Line moveno move
The matchup: Temple's pass offense ranks #63 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and South Florida's pass defense ranks #108.
The worry: South Florida's run offense (#23) against Temple's run defense (#116).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, South Florida has been 6 points better on the scoreboard and 7 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: South Florida -6.5. Our number is South Florida -11.5, a 5.0-point gap toward Temple. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Temple has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). South Florida is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip).
McNeese @ LSUSat 7:45 PM ▸ breakdownLineno lineOur numberLSU -50.8Leanno lineLine move—
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, LSU has been 39 points better on the scoreboard and 39 better play-for-play (neutral field).
No betting line yet. Our number: LSU -50.8.
Trend check: LSU won by 29 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). LSU is favored by 53.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Arkansas State @ LouisianaSat 8:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineLouisiana -6.5Our numberLouisiana -9.9LeanArkansas State 50%Line moveno move
The worry: Arkansas State's run offense (#63) runs into Louisiana's run defense (#3).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Louisiana has been 10 points better on the scoreboard and 9 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Louisiana -6.5. Our number is Louisiana -9.9, a 3.4-point gap toward Arkansas State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Louisiana has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip). Louisiana won by 27 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Indiana @ RutgersSat 8:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineRutgers +24.5Our numberRutgers +20.8LeanIndiana 50%Line move▼ 0.5 against us
The matchup: Indiana's pass offense ranks #6 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Rutgers's pass defense ranks #102.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Indiana has been 19 points better on the scoreboard and 21 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Rutgers +24.5. Our number is Rutgers +20.8, a 3.7-point gap toward Indiana. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Rutgers won by 51 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Rutgers is a home underdog (+24.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Rutgers is a 24.5-point underdog. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Indiana has failed to cover 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Indiana is a road favorite (-24.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Indiana is favored by 24.5. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Indiana is 4-0 and favored. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip).
Fresno State @ Washington StateSat 9:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineWashington State -2.5Our numberWashington State -0.8LeanFresno State 50%Line move▲ 1 our way
The matchup: Fresno State's pass defense ranks #63 of 138 FBS teams; Washington State's pass offense ranks only #131.
The numbers: the scoreboard favors Fresno State by 5 points, but play-for-play efficiency favors Washington State by 3. Efficiency tends to predict the future better.
The line: Washington State -2.5. Our number is Washington State -0.8, a 1.7-point gap toward Fresno State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Fresno State has covered 3 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 49% (busted: coin flip).
Baylor @ Arizona StateSat 10:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineArizona State -4Our numberArizona State +0.9LeanBaylor 51%Line moveno move
The matchup: Baylor's run defense ranks #6 of 138 FBS teams; Arizona State's run offense ranks only #102.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Baylor has been 6 points better on the scoreboard and 2 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Arizona State -4. Our number is Arizona State +0.9, a 4.9-point gap toward Baylor. Cover chance 51% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Arizona State had 15 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip).
Texas State @ San Diego StateSat 10:30 PM ▸ breakdownLineSan Diego State +4Our numberSan Diego State +2.1LeanTexas State 50%Line move▲ 1.5 our way
The matchup: Texas State's pass offense ranks #3 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and San Diego State's pass defense ranks #115.
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Texas State has been 7 points better on the scoreboard and 9 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: San Diego State +4. Our number is San Diego State +2.1, a 1.9-point gap toward Texas State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Texas State won by 53 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). Texas State is a road favorite (-5.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). San Diego State has failed to cover 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). San Diego State lost by 25 last time out. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip). San Diego State is a home underdog (+5.5). Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
Cincinnati @ ArizonaSat 11:00 PM ▸ breakdownLineArizona -7Our numberArizona -7.6LeanCincinnati 50%Line move▲ 0.5 our way
The matchup: Cincinnati's run offense ranks #10 of 138 FBS teams in efficiency, and Arizona's run defense ranks #65.
The worry: Arizona's run offense (#65) against Cincinnati's run defense (#110).
The numbers: adjusted for opponents, Arizona has been 4 points better on the scoreboard and 7 better play-for-play (neutral field).
The line: Arizona -7. Our number is Arizona -7.6, a 0.6-point gap toward Cincinnati. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: Arizona has failed to cover 4 straight. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
San José State @ Hawai'iSat 11:59 PM ▸ breakdownLineHawai'i -2.5Our numberHawai'i -2.6LeanSan José State 50%Line move▼ 0.5 against us
The numbers: the scoreboard favors San José State by 3 points, but play-for-play efficiency favors Hawai'i by 1. Efficiency tends to predict the future better.
The line: Hawai'i -2.5. Our number is Hawai'i -2.6, a 0.1-point gap toward San José State. Cover chance 50% — a lean, not a lock.
Trend check: San José State had 14 days of rest. Historically, teams in that spot covered 51% (busted: coin flip). Hawai'i lost outright as a favorite last game. Historically, teams in that spot covered 50% (busted: coin flip).
For fun and information only. No model beats the spread every week; never bet more than you can afford to lose.