Trend Buster

TV and betting sites love trends like "Team X has covered 4 straight." We test each kind of trend on every FBS game from 2016–2025 to see if it actually predicted the next game. To count as real, it has to beat the 52.4% break-even in both halves of that span, not just overall.

Why use past seasons if rosters change? The trend itself is always built from this season: this year's streaks, this year's record. Past seasons are only used to check whether that kind of trend has ever meant anything. One season is too small to tell: a team plays about 12 games, and a 4-0 run against the spread happens by pure luck all the time.

This week's trends

Perfect against the spread (4-0 or better)

6 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 39.2% (51-79)

Something there, but thin

Mississippi State is 4-0 against the spread this season vs Alabama, Sat 12:00 PM
Georgia is 4-0 against the spread this season vs Vanderbilt, Sat 12:45 PM
Georgia State is 4-0 against the spread this season vs Old Dominion, Sat 3:30 PM
James Madison is 4-0 against the spread this season vs Marshall, Sat 3:45 PM
New Mexico is 4-0 against the spread this season vs UTEP, Sat 4:00 PM
Oregon State is 4-0 against the spread this season vs Colorado State, Sat 6:00 PM

Coming off a 21+ point win

31 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 49.6% (1562-1590)

Busted: coin flip

Western Kentucky won by 45 last time out vs New Mexico State, Thu 8:00 PM
North Texas won by 49 last time out vs Tulsa, Thu 9:00 PM
Pittsburgh won by 59 last time out vs Virginia Tech, Fri 7:00 PM
Alabama won by 31 last time out vs Mississippi State, Sat 12:00 PM
Notre Dame won by 39 last time out vs North Carolina, Sat 12:00 PM
Georgia won by 28 last time out vs Vanderbilt, Sat 12:45 PM
Toledo won by 25 last time out vs Ball State, Sat 2:00 PM
Virginia won by 39 last time out vs Florida State, Sat 3:30 PM
North Dakota State won by 21 last time out vs Wyoming, Sat 3:30 PM
Eastern Michigan won by 26 last time out vs Massachusetts, Sat 3:30 PM
Florida State won by 27 last time out vs Virginia, Sat 3:30 PM
UNLV won by 28 last time out vs California, Sat 3:30 PM
Memphis won by 24 last time out vs Charlotte, Sat 3:30 PM
Massachusetts won by 29 last time out vs Eastern Michigan, Sat 3:30 PM
Georgia State won by 21 last time out vs Old Dominion, Sat 3:30 PM
Ohio won by 28 last time out vs Kent State, Sat 3:30 PM
Ohio State won by 23 last time out vs Iowa, Sat 3:30 PM
Florida won by 24 last time out vs Missouri, Sat 3:30 PM
James Madison won by 26 last time out vs Marshall, Sat 3:45 PM
New Mexico won by 24 last time out vs UTEP, Sat 4:00 PM
Kentucky won by 24 last time out vs South Carolina, Sat 4:15 PM
Oregon State won by 26 last time out vs Colorado State, Sat 6:00 PM
Florida Atlantic won by 28 last time out vs Texas Southern, Sat 6:00 PM
Arkansas won by 28 last time out vs Texas A&M, Sat 7:00 PM
Miami won by 49 last time out vs Clemson, Sat 7:30 PM
Boise State won by 25 last time out vs Utah State, Sat 7:30 PM
Texas Tech won by 35 last time out vs Colorado, Sat 7:30 PM
LSU won by 29 last time out vs McNeese, Sat 7:45 PM
Rutgers won by 51 last time out vs Indiana, Sat 8:00 PM
Louisiana won by 27 last time out vs Arkansas State, Sat 8:00 PM
Texas State won by 53 last time out vs San Diego State, Sat 10:30 PM

Home underdog

23 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 50.1% (1307-1301)

Busted: coin flip

Delaware is a home underdog (+7) vs Liberty, Fri 7:00 PM
Northwestern is a home underdog (+3) vs Penn State, Fri 8:00 PM
North Carolina is a home underdog (+21) vs Notre Dame, Sat 12:00 PM
Minnesota is a home underdog (+5.5) vs Michigan, Sat 12:00 PM
UConn is a home underdog (+6.5) vs Syracuse, Sat 12:00 PM
Mississippi State is a home underdog (+6) vs Alabama, Sat 12:00 PM
Buffalo is a home underdog (+13.5) vs Western Michigan, Sat 1:00 PM
Ball State is a home underdog (+19.5) vs Toledo, Sat 2:00 PM
NC State is a home underdog (+3.5) vs Louisville, Sat 3:30 PM
Florida State is a home underdog (+3) vs Virginia, Sat 3:30 PM
Missouri is a home underdog (+5.5) vs Florida, Sat 3:30 PM
Kent State is a home underdog (+3.5) vs Ohio, Sat 3:30 PM
Charlotte is a home underdog (+20.5) vs Memphis, Sat 3:30 PM
Iowa is a home underdog (+14.5) vs Ohio State, Sat 3:30 PM
Colorado State is a home underdog (+6.5) vs Oregon State, Sat 6:00 PM
TCU is a home underdog (+6.5) vs BYU, Sat 7:00 PM
Coastal Carolina is a home underdog (+2.5) vs Georgia Southern, Sat 7:00 PM
Rice is a home underdog (+12) vs UTSA, Sat 7:00 PM
Colorado is a home underdog (+11.5) vs Texas Tech, Sat 7:30 PM
Clemson is a home underdog (+16.5) vs Miami, Sat 7:30 PM
Louisiana Tech is a home underdog (+2.5) vs Army, Sat 7:30 PM
Rutgers is a home underdog (+24.5) vs Indiana, Sat 8:00 PM
San Diego State is a home underdog (+5.5) vs Texas State, Sat 10:30 PM

Road favorite

23 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 49.8% (1294-1303)

Busted: coin flip

Liberty is a road favorite (-7) vs Delaware, Fri 7:00 PM
Penn State is a road favorite (-3) vs Northwestern, Fri 8:00 PM
Syracuse is a road favorite (-6.5) vs UConn, Sat 12:00 PM
Alabama is a road favorite (-6) vs Mississippi State, Sat 12:00 PM
Michigan is a road favorite (-5.5) vs Minnesota, Sat 12:00 PM
Notre Dame is a road favorite (-21) vs North Carolina, Sat 12:00 PM
Western Michigan is a road favorite (-13.5) vs Buffalo, Sat 1:00 PM
Toledo is a road favorite (-19.5) vs Ball State, Sat 2:00 PM
Virginia is a road favorite (-3) vs Florida State, Sat 3:30 PM
Memphis is a road favorite (-20.5) vs Charlotte, Sat 3:30 PM
Ohio is a road favorite (-3.5) vs Kent State, Sat 3:30 PM
Ohio State is a road favorite (-14.5) vs Iowa, Sat 3:30 PM
Florida is a road favorite (-5.5) vs Missouri, Sat 3:30 PM
Louisville is a road favorite (-3.5) vs NC State, Sat 3:30 PM
Oregon State is a road favorite (-6.5) vs Colorado State, Sat 6:00 PM
UTSA is a road favorite (-12) vs Rice, Sat 7:00 PM
Georgia Southern is a road favorite (-2.5) vs Coastal Carolina, Sat 7:00 PM
BYU is a road favorite (-6.5) vs TCU, Sat 7:00 PM
Miami is a road favorite (-16.5) vs Clemson, Sat 7:30 PM
Army is a road favorite (-2.5) vs Louisiana Tech, Sat 7:30 PM
Texas Tech is a road favorite (-11.5) vs Colorado, Sat 7:30 PM
Indiana is a road favorite (-24.5) vs Rutgers, Sat 8:00 PM
Texas State is a road favorite (-5.5) vs San Diego State, Sat 10:30 PM

Favored by 14+

19 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 49.9% (1605-1613)

Busted: coin flip

Kansas is favored by 18.5 vs Middle Tennessee, Sat 12:00 PM
Notre Dame is favored by 21 vs North Carolina, Sat 12:00 PM
SMU is favored by 21 vs Boston College, Sat 12:00 PM
Georgia is favored by 23.5 vs Vanderbilt, Sat 12:45 PM
Toledo is favored by 19.5 vs Ball State, Sat 2:00 PM
North Dakota State is favored by 18.5 vs Wyoming, Sat 3:30 PM
Memphis is favored by 20.5 vs Charlotte, Sat 3:30 PM
UAB is favored by 30.5 vs Samford, Sat 3:30 PM
Ohio State is favored by 14.5 vs Iowa, Sat 3:30 PM
James Madison is favored by 18.5 vs Marshall, Sat 3:45 PM
Nebraska is favored by 14.5 vs Maryland, Sat 4:00 PM
New Mexico is favored by 23 vs UTEP, Sat 4:00 PM
Florida Atlantic is favored by 43.5 vs Texas Southern, Sat 6:00 PM
South Alabama is favored by 14 vs UL Monroe, Sat 7:00 PM
Texas A&M is favored by 14 vs Arkansas, Sat 7:00 PM
Miami is favored by 16.5 vs Clemson, Sat 7:30 PM
Boise State is favored by 20 vs Utah State, Sat 7:30 PM
LSU is favored by 53.5 vs McNeese, Sat 7:45 PM
Indiana is favored by 24.5 vs Rutgers, Sat 8:00 PM

Coming off a 21+ point loss

17 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 49.8% (1138-1145)

Busted: coin flip

New Mexico State lost by 24 last time out vs Western Kentucky, Thu 8:00 PM
Tulsa lost by 28 last time out vs North Texas, Thu 9:00 PM
Delaware lost by 39 last time out vs Liberty, Fri 7:00 PM
Western Michigan lost by 25 last time out vs Buffalo, Sat 1:00 PM
Akron lost by 28 last time out vs Central Michigan, Sat 3:30 PM
Charlotte lost by 27 last time out vs Memphis, Sat 3:30 PM
Old Dominion lost by 26 last time out vs Georgia State, Sat 3:30 PM
Central Michigan lost by 49 last time out vs Akron, Sat 3:30 PM
UTEP lost by 26 last time out vs New Mexico, Sat 4:00 PM
Maryland lost by 51 last time out vs Nebraska, Sat 4:00 PM
Illinois lost by 23 last time out vs Purdue, Sat 4:15 PM
Purdue lost by 39 last time out vs Illinois, Sat 4:15 PM
South Carolina lost by 31 last time out vs Kentucky, Sat 4:15 PM
South Alabama lost by 24 last time out vs UL Monroe, Sat 7:00 PM
Texas A&M lost by 29 last time out vs Arkansas, Sat 7:00 PM
UL Monroe lost by 28 last time out vs South Alabama, Sat 7:00 PM
San Diego State lost by 25 last time out vs Texas State, Sat 10:30 PM

Underdog of 14+

16 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 49.6% (1158-1178)

Busted: coin flip

North Carolina is a 21-point underdog vs Notre Dame, Sat 12:00 PM
Boston College is a 21-point underdog vs SMU, Sat 12:00 PM
Middle Tennessee is a 18.5-point underdog vs Kansas, Sat 12:00 PM
Vanderbilt is a 23.5-point underdog vs Georgia, Sat 12:45 PM
Ball State is a 19.5-point underdog vs Toledo, Sat 2:00 PM
Charlotte is a 20.5-point underdog vs Memphis, Sat 3:30 PM
Iowa is a 14.5-point underdog vs Ohio State, Sat 3:30 PM
Wyoming is a 18.5-point underdog vs North Dakota State, Sat 3:30 PM
Marshall is a 18.5-point underdog vs James Madison, Sat 3:45 PM
UTEP is a 23-point underdog vs New Mexico, Sat 4:00 PM
Maryland is a 14.5-point underdog vs Nebraska, Sat 4:00 PM
Arkansas is a 14-point underdog vs Texas A&M, Sat 7:00 PM
UL Monroe is a 14-point underdog vs South Alabama, Sat 7:00 PM
Utah State is a 20-point underdog vs Boise State, Sat 7:30 PM
Clemson is a 16.5-point underdog vs Miami, Sat 7:30 PM
Rutgers is a 24.5-point underdog vs Indiana, Sat 8:00 PM

On a 3+ game cover streak

16 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 49.0% (728-757)

Busted: coin flip

Northwestern has covered 3 straight vs Penn State, Fri 8:00 PM
Mississippi State has covered 4 straight vs Alabama, Sat 12:00 PM
Georgia has covered 4 straight vs Vanderbilt, Sat 12:45 PM
Georgia State has covered 4 straight vs Old Dominion, Sat 3:30 PM
Miami (OH) has covered 3 straight vs Bowling Green, Sat 3:30 PM
James Madison has covered 4 straight vs Marshall, Sat 3:45 PM
Nebraska has covered 3 straight vs Maryland, Sat 4:00 PM
New Mexico has covered 4 straight vs UTEP, Sat 4:00 PM
Oregon State has covered 4 straight vs Colorado State, Sat 6:00 PM
Florida Atlantic has covered 3 straight vs Texas Southern, Sat 6:00 PM
UTSA has covered 3 straight vs Rice, Sat 7:00 PM
BYU has covered 3 straight vs TCU, Sat 7:00 PM
Temple has covered 3 straight vs South Florida, Sat 7:30 PM
Louisiana Tech has covered 3 straight vs Army, Sat 7:30 PM
Louisiana has covered 3 straight vs Arkansas State, Sat 8:00 PM
Fresno State has covered 3 straight vs Washington State, Sat 9:30 PM

Unbeaten (4-0 or better) and favored

13 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 51.5% (319-301)

Busted: coin flip

Virginia Tech is 4-0 and favored vs Pittsburgh, Fri 7:00 PM
Alabama is 4-0 and favored vs Mississippi State, Sat 12:00 PM
Notre Dame is 4-0 and favored vs North Carolina, Sat 12:00 PM
Georgia is 4-0 and favored vs Vanderbilt, Sat 12:45 PM
North Dakota State is 4-0 and favored vs Wyoming, Sat 3:30 PM
Massachusetts is 4-0 and favored vs Eastern Michigan, Sat 3:30 PM
Florida is 4-0 and favored vs Missouri, Sat 3:30 PM
James Madison is 4-0 and favored vs Marshall, Sat 3:45 PM
Nebraska is 4-0 and favored vs Maryland, Sat 4:00 PM
Miami is 4-0 and favored vs Clemson, Sat 7:30 PM
Texas Tech is 4-0 and favored vs Colorado, Sat 7:30 PM
South Florida is 4-0 and favored vs Temple, Sat 7:30 PM
Indiana is 4-0 and favored vs Rutgers, Sat 8:00 PM

Failed to cover 3+ straight

10 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 50.4% (698-688)

Busted: coin flip

Navy has failed to cover 3 straight vs Air Force, Sat 12:00 PM
Buffalo has failed to cover 4 straight vs Western Michigan, Sat 1:00 PM
Old Dominion has failed to cover 4 straight vs Georgia State, Sat 3:30 PM
South Carolina has failed to cover 3 straight vs Kentucky, Sat 4:15 PM
USC has failed to cover 3 straight vs Washington, Sat 7:30 PM
Colorado has failed to cover 3 straight vs Texas Tech, Sat 7:30 PM
Washington has failed to cover 4 straight vs USC, Sat 7:30 PM
Indiana has failed to cover 4 straight vs Rutgers, Sat 8:00 PM
San Diego State has failed to cover 4 straight vs Texas State, Sat 10:30 PM
Arizona has failed to cover 4 straight vs Cincinnati, Sat 11:00 PM

Coming off a bye week

9 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 50.7% (848-825)

Busted: coin flip

North Carolina had 14 days of rest vs Notre Dame, Sat 12:00 PM
Kansas had 14 days of rest vs Middle Tennessee, Sat 12:00 PM
Syracuse had 16 days of rest vs UConn, Sat 12:00 PM
North Dakota State had 13 days of rest vs Wyoming, Sat 3:30 PM
Memphis had 14 days of rest vs Charlotte, Sat 3:30 PM
BYU had 14 days of rest vs TCU, Sat 7:00 PM
Louisiana Tech had 14 days of rest vs Army, Sat 7:30 PM
Arizona State had 15 days of rest vs Baylor, Sat 10:30 PM
San José State had 14 days of rest vs Hawai'i, Sat 11:59 PM

Lost outright as a favorite last game

8 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 50.3% (918-907)

Busted: coin flip

Penn State lost outright as a favorite last game vs Northwestern, Fri 8:00 PM
West Virginia lost outright as a favorite last game vs Iowa State, Sat 12:00 PM
Navy lost outright as a favorite last game vs Air Force, Sat 12:00 PM
Michigan lost outright as a favorite last game vs Minnesota, Sat 12:00 PM
Louisville lost outright as a favorite last game vs NC State, Sat 3:30 PM
TCU lost outright as a favorite last game vs BYU, Sat 7:00 PM
Washington lost outright as a favorite last game vs USC, Sat 7:30 PM
Hawai'i lost outright as a favorite last game vs San José State, Sat 11:59 PM

Winless (0-3 or worse) and an underdog

3 teams this week ▸ list

Historycovered 50.2% (110-109)

Busted: coin flip

Bowling Green is 0-4 and an underdog vs Miami (OH), Sat 3:30 PM
Charlotte is 0-4 and an underdog vs Memphis, Sat 3:30 PM
UL Monroe is 0-4 and an underdog vs South Alabama, Sat 7:00 PM

Short week (5 days or less)

1 team this week ▸ list

Historycovered 48.0% (109-118)

Busted: coin flip

Tulsa is on a short week (5 days) vs North Texas, Thu 9:00 PM

The scorecard

Trend	Covered-Didn't-Push	Cover %	2016–2020	2021–2025	Verdict
Perfect against the spread (4-0 or better)	51-79-7	39.2%	39.1%	39.4%	Something there, but thin
Short week (5 days or less)	109-118-3	48.0%	48.0%	48.0%	Busted: coin flip
Unbeaten (4-0 or better) and favored	319-301-12	51.5%	51.2%	51.7%	Busted: coin flip
On a 3+ game cover streak	728-757-36	49.0%	50.8%	47.5%	Busted: coin flip
Coming off a bye week	848-825-36	50.7%	50.1%	51.2%	Busted: coin flip
Coming off a 21+ point win	1562-1590-73	49.6%	49.1%	50.0%	Busted: coin flip
Underdog of 14+	1158-1178-50	49.6%	49.5%	49.7%	Busted: coin flip
Failed to cover 3+ straight	698-688-38	50.4%	50.9%	49.9%	Busted: coin flip
Lost outright as a favorite last game	918-907-41	50.3%	50.7%	50.0%	Busted: coin flip
Winless (0-3 or worse) and an underdog	110-109-5	50.2%	48.5%	52.9%	Busted: coin flip
Road favorite	1294-1303-59	49.8%	50.6%	49.1%	Busted: coin flip
Coming off a 21+ point loss	1138-1145-44	49.8%	47.7%	52.0%	Busted: coin flip
Bowl game underdog	197-196-7	50.1%	51.4%	49.0%	Busted: coin flip
Favored by 14+	1605-1613-61	49.9%	48.9%	50.8%	Busted: coin flip
Home underdog	1307-1301-60	50.1%	49.3%	50.9%	Busted: coin flip

Graded against closing lines. Tested 2026-09-30 16:51.

For fun and information only. No model beats the spread every week; never bet more than you can afford to lose.